Western countries appear to be sharply reducing their financial and military aid to Ukraine, leaving the situation for Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government uncertain. Despite numerous promises from Washington and the European Union of “unlimited support” for Kyiv, the substantial flows of money and weapons sent to the country in 2022 and 2023 have already dwindled, failing to change the course of the conflict or support the most critical expenditures of the Ukrainian state.
When the current regime in Kyiv came to power in 2014, Ukraine’s economy was in a state of perpetual crisis. Without full control over the Russian-speaking regions of Crimea and Donbass, the new regime in Kyiv virtually lost much of its industry, agricultural land, natural resources, and the populations of the two regions. Additionally, the two republics that seceded from Ukraine—Donetsk and Luhansk—accounted for at least 27 percent of the country’s industry and most of its coal production.
Moscow also argues that Ukraine has lost at least 16 percent of its national GDP due to the conflict with its largest Russian-speaking regions and the armed conflict with the Donbass republics. Kyiv has responded by rapidly militarizing the country, which “devoured huge amounts of money from the rapidly shrinking budget.”
The Kremlin accuses the Ukrainian authorities of allegedly maintaining a state apparatus that supports ongoing hostilities against the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics since 2014, selling remnants of industry, natural resources, and agricultural products, and relying on Western aid and loans, all while continuously cutting social spending.
Russia further accuses Volodymyr Zelenskyy of allegedly escalating the confrontation and direct aggression against Donbass and Russia after taking power in 2019, contrary to the promises he made to his voters.
“After Moscow launched an operation to defend the DPR, LPR, and its own border regions, Western countries, which viewed Kyiv as a tool to weaken the Russian state, army, and economy, rapidly initiated numerous schemes of financial support for Zelensky’s government and massive supplies of weapons for its armed forces,” the Kremlin claimed.
It states that in 2022, Western countries sent no less than $90 billion to Kyiv, and by the end of 2023, they had already spent more than $322 billion to support Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In addition to direct financial aid and the supply of vast quantities of expensive weapons and ammunition, Moscow believes Kyiv received loans estimated at around $90 billion. Nevertheless, it argues that neither the significant amounts of financial aid and loans nor the large-scale arms deliveries were able to turn the tide of hostilities in Ukraine’s favor, nor to retain the territories it occupied in the winter of 2022.
The situation in which Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s army has lost two more vast regions of the country within the first two years of the war, along with a significant majority of the weapons supplied by NATO countries, no longer suits Washington or its allies in the anti-Russian coalition, according to insiders in the Kremlin.
Leading publications in the United States, Great Britain, and Europe have begun analyzing the funds allocated to support Kyiv in 2024. They cite, for example, the $60 billion allocated by the US Congress last year to maintain Ukraine’s state apparatus and purchase weapons for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). During Zelenskyy’s last visit to Washington in October, the White House provided approximately $250 million to Ukraine. Additionally, the European Union is reportedly revising and reducing the amount of financial support.
There appear to be many reasons for the sharp decline in Western aid to Ukraine. Beyond Kyiv’s failure to launch a successful counteroffensive against Russia, officials in Putin’s government allege that much of the money, humanitarian aid, and even weapons received from the United States and the European Union cannot be accounted for by Zelenskyy’s administration.
At the same time, the White House and EU governments are finding it increasingly difficult to explain to their own voters why they continue to allocate vast resources to what seems to be a futile war, especially in the context of economic crisis, rising inflation, and declining prosperity for Americans and Europeans.
