The Kenya Meteorological Department has announced that the short rains are expected to begin between the third and fourth week of this month.
The October 2024 weather outlook indicates that the Highlands west of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Central and South Rift Valley, the Northwest, the Highlands east of the Rift Valley (including Nairobi County), isolated areas in the Northeast (parts of Marsabit), and parts of the Southeast (Machakos and parts of Kajiado) are likely to experience near to above-average rainfall for the month.
In contrast, the Coastal region, most of the Southeastern lowlands, and the majority of the Northeastern zone are expected to receive near to below-average rainfall.
“The onset of the Short Rains season is anticipated between the fourth week of October and the first week of November over the eastern part of the country, while it is expected to occur in the third to fourth week of October over the central parts, including Nairobi County,” KMD says.
Depressed rainfall
Generally, the rainfall is expected to be poorly distributed, both in time and space over several parts of the country, says the Kenya Meteorological Department.
According to the October-November-December weather outlook, the western sector is expected to have a fair to good distribution while the central sector is expected to have a poor to fair distribution. The rest of the country is expected to have a poor distribution
The rains are anticipated to cease during the 1st-2nd week of December with occasional rainfall towards the end of December.
Temperatures are expected to be warmer than average across most parts of the country, except in a few areas in the western sector where both maximum and minimum temperatures are anticipated to be near normal.
Higher probabilities for warmer-than-average temperatures are expected over the central and eastern regions of the country.
The climate outlook is based on models developed from the expected evolution of global Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs).
