The Weatherman is urging for anticipatory action as short rains seasonal forecast indicates below-average rains in two-thirds of the country. In the forecast released by the Director of Meteorological Service Dr. David Gikungu indicates that the October-November-December (OND) season will see depressed rainfall in the Central and Eastern parts of the country.
“This will be driven by weak La Niña conditions, characterized by cooler-than-average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean, which are likely to develop during the September to November period and persist into early 2025,” says Dr. Gikungu who noted that the combination of the weak la Nina and a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole could drive the depressed rainfall in Central and Eastern parts of the country.
While noting that the October, November to December season is an important season for the two-thirds of the country, Dr. Gikungu says that “the region could still receive storms during the dry season.”
The Weatherman says that the Western part of the country including the Lake Basin region is expected to receive “normal to above normal rainfall during the OND 2024 season,” he said as he released the forecast adding that, “the Coastal region, most of the Northeast and most of the Southeastern lowlands are expected to receive below average rainfall.
He noted that the predicted near-average to below rainfall during the October to December Short Rains season is expected to have both negative and positive impacts across various sectors.
The Director of the Meteorological Service said the distribution of rainfall is also expected to be poor across several parts of the country. “This will be marked by prolonged dry spells and occasional isolated storms, even in regions where the prediction indicates depressed rainfall,” adding that, “Temperatures are expected to be warmer than average across most parts of the country, except in a few areas in the western sector where both maximum and minimum temperatures are anticipated to be near normal, while higher probabilities for warmer-than-average temperatures are expected over the central and eastern regions of the country.”
The specific outlook for October-November-December (OND) 2024 shows that the Lake Victoria Basin, Highlands West of the Rift Valley, Central and South Rift Valley that include the counties of Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Busia, Kisii, Nyamira, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, West Pokot, Elgeyo Marakwet, Nandi, Kericho, Bomet, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Baringo, most parts of Nakuru, parts of Narok, parts of Laikipia, parts of Highlands East of the Rift Valley like western Nyandarua are expected to receive near to slightly above normal rainfall with occasional dry spells throughout the season.
Northwestern Counties of Turkana, Western Samburu) and parts of Northeastern Kenya western parts of Marsabit bordering Lake Turkana are expected to receive occasional rainfall that is expected to be near to slightly above the long-term average amounts for the season. “However, prolonged dry spells are likely, and the expected rainfall is expected to be poorly distributed both in space and time,” said Dr. Gikungu.
Highlands East of the Rift Valley Counties including Nairobi county, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Meru, parts of Nyandarua, parts of Embu, parts of Tharaka Nithi, Parts of Central Rift Valley (Southeastern Nakuru) parts of Southeastern Lowlands (western Machakos, central and western Kajiado), parts of Northeastern (Central Marsabit) and parts of Northwestern Kenya in Samburu are expected to receive rainfall with dry spells with the amounts anticipated to be near to below the long-term average for the season.
The Weatherman says that the South-eastern Lowlands Counties of Kitui, Makueni, Taita Taveta, Kajiado, eastern Machakos, and Tana River, “are expected to experience intermittent rainfall throughout the season and the total rainfall amounts are likely to be below the long-term average for the season,” says Dr. Gikungu
Rainfall in the North-Eastern Counties of Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, and eastern parts of Marsabit are expected to be below average for the season, with prolonged dry spells expected in the Coastal Counties of Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu, Kwale and Coastal Tana River.
The temperature forecast shows that most parts of the country are expected to be warmer than average, except a few areas over the western sector “where both maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to be near average,” he says and adds that, “the Central and eastern parts of the country are expected to have higher probabilities for warmer than average temperature.”
