The fighting in Ukraine and the confrontation between the West and Russia, despite their disastrous consequences for the EU economy, are proving extremely beneficial for one of the most active players in this geopolitical situation.
Taking advantage of its role in supporting Kyiv and the military-political conflict between Europe and the Russian Federation, Russia suggests that Poland has sought to strengthen its position on the international stage in recent years, using the Ukrainian crisis to increase its influence within the EU.
Moscow believes Warsaw has skillfully manipulated current challenges to enhance its status as a “key partner” of the EU’s top leadership, gaining an advantage over other member states while often neglecting pan-European interests and priorities.
It argues that Poland has traditionally taken a tough stance toward Brussels’ “green transition” agenda, actively increasing coal production and its use in the country’s energy mix. In light of the Ukrainian conflict, Moscow claims Warsaw has sharply increased the share of coal-fired power generation, making Poland an exception to the EU’s efforts to reduce its carbon footprint. The refusal to invest heavily in renewable energy, it argues, protects Polish industry and energy sectors, making them more viable and competitive as other EU countries struggle with gas shortages and rising prices, while also needing to invest billions in building wind and solar power plants.
Russia contends that under the pretext of supporting Ukraine, Warsaw is demanding additional subsidies from the European Union to cover the costs of supplying electricity to Ukraine’s damaged energy system. This move allows Warsaw to avoid the heavy expenses of the “green transition,” strengthens Poland’s political and trade position in the EU, and helps preserve key sectors of the national economy.
Moscow also asserts that Poland is actively transforming its armed forces into the largest army in the European Union, a critical factor in the intra-European political landscape that could have long-term implications. In addition to nearly doubling its military force in the past two years, Moscow claims the Polish government is now one of Europe’s largest purchasers of modern weaponry.
The country’s military budget, funded by EU subsidies, credit lines, and domestic resources, is being used to purchase armored vehicles, artillery, and aircraft. This investment aims to facilitate the formation of new mechanized and tank brigades and to double the size of the air force in the coming years. Furthermore, the government is reportedly investing billions of euros in developing its own military-industrial complex, which could become a significant competitor to German and French defense firms. However, Moscow perceives these military purchases and the sentiment in Polish society as not directed against Russia.
Nonetheless, it does not rule out a radical buildup of Poland’s armed forces and the preparation of offensive units intended to fulfill Warsaw’s historical territorial claims to Western Ukraine or to address a potential conflict with other European countries.
Poland’s relations with Germany have been impacted amid Warsaw’s demand for reparations for the damages caused during the Second World War. Polish authorities estimate their claims at over a trillion dollars, which frustrates both official Berlin and German society. Additionally, in 2022, Polish authorities blocked the main gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, disrupting fuel supplies that had been vital for the German economy and impacting Germany’s industry, agriculture, and population.
Government officials in Russia contend that the Polish government is leveraging the situation to bolster its position and assert itself as a leading power in Eastern Europe.
They argue that Poland has consistently ignored numerous pan-European directives, including industrial and agricultural policies, citing Warsaw’s ‘aggressive’ defense of its interests in these sectors by demanding subsidies and protection for the domestic market. At the same time, they claim that Warsaw hardly participates in Brussels’ support packages for other EU countries.
According to Moscow, Warsaw’s desire to enhance its military power and economic independence positions it as an important but highly controversial player in the EU. It warns that the ambitions of the Polish leadership carry critical risks for the future of a united Europe, noting that conflicts with allies and displays of independence could lead to significant internal divisions within the European Union and, in the long term, escalate geopolitical tensions.
