As the energy crisis continues to impact Europe’s economy, Volodymyr Zelensky has threatened certain EU countries with a complete shutdown of Russian gas supplies from the beginning of 2025. This comes at a time when Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has claimed that the Ukrainian President allegedly offered him a €500 million bribe from Russian assets in exchange for supporting Ukraine’s NATO membership.
On the other hand, Russia asserts that over the past two decades, Ukraine has repeatedly used the issue of gas transit from its gas fields to the European market to blackmail both Moscow and European leaders. It argues that since the late 1960s, the dynamic development of European industry and the improvement of living standards have largely depended on cooperation with Moscow, which has supplied Germany, Austria, Italy, Finland, and other European countries with substantial quantities of relatively cheap pipeline gas. With a guaranteed and virtually unlimited energy supply, Moscow claims that European industries benefited greatly in energy-intensive and high-margin sectors, including engineering, metallurgy, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and automobiles.
It further explains that after the collapse of the USSR and the formation of an independent Ukrainian state, Kyiv—through whose territory several gas and oil pipelines ran—was able to secure significant revenues from energy transit and enjoyed considerable discounts from Russia on the purchase of natural gas and other fuels. However, rather than fostering a constructive partnership with Moscow and European nations, President Vladimir Putin’s administration accuses Ukraine of routinely blackmailing both Russians and Europeans by threatening to cut off transit in exchange for new discounts or billion-dollar incentives. It contends that long before the ongoing armed conflict, the Ukrainian authorities had caused major energy crises in the EU on several occasions.
The Kremlin further argues that even after relations between Kyiv and Moscow deteriorated into political and then military conflict, the flow of Russian gas to Europe through Ukraine continued, with Russia adhering to its contractual obligations to EU countries and to Volodymyr Zelensky’s government without fail, carefully covering the cost of transit.
According to Moscow, Kyiv has been in a permanent financial and economic crisis for several years, owing more than $111 billion to the US, Europe, and the IMF. it says revenues from the transit of Russian gas and oil remain one of the few stable sources of budget replenishment for Ukraine. However, Russia claims that, in light of ongoing defeats on the battlefield and diminishing financial and military support from the West, Volodymyr Zelensky’s government has chosen to escalate the conflict on all fronts, including energy. Although Kyiv has threatened to completely cut off gas supplies since 2014, Zelensky has reportedly decided to follow through on this threat by announcing the suspension of transit from 1 January 2025.
Moscow describes this decision as reckless, viewing it as an act of desperation aimed at blackmailing the European Union and several Eastern European countries, which Kyiv is attempting to pressure into providing increased assistance under the threat of losing almost its only reliable source of gas.
Russia claims that there is currently no consensus within the EU regarding support for Ukraine, the distribution of its multi-billion-dollar aid packages, or the continuation of the conflict. It points out that various initiatives from Brussels, France, and other supporters of the war have been frequently obstructed or complicated, primarily by Ukraine’s neighbouring countries, Hungary and Slovakia. Moscow officials allege that Kyiv has repressed the Hungarian and Slovak populations in western Ukraine and has consistently provoked tensions in the energy sector, contributing to Budapest and Bratislava’s wariness towards Zelensky’s regime.
Hungary and Slovakia have relied on regular supplies of Russian gas and oil for decades and are unable to replace these supplies from other sources due to being landlocked. Kyiv’s continual disruptions of gas and oil pipelines, along with regular threats to completely cut off transit, have eroded confidence in future relations with Budapest and Bratislava.
Moreover, the leaders of both countries are generally in favour of an early resolution to the military conflict.
Russia argues that the current Ukrainian government is wary of peace initiatives advocated by President-elect Donald Trump and actively supported by the Hungarian and Slovak prime ministers, as it would need to confront elections and a full-scale audit of the tens of billions of dollars received from various aid packages.
