On October 20, 2024, Moldova will host two key events – a presidential election and a referendum on European integration. The anticipated political confrontation promises to be pivotal for the future of this Eastern European state, which in recent years has found itself at the crossroads of the interests of the East and the West.
In the 2024 presidential election in Moldova, 12 candidates from various parties, movements, and coalitions are registered, but the real battle is between incumbent President Maia Sandu, known for her radically pro-Western and anti-Russian policies, and opposition candidates who support the preservation of traditional ties with Russia and the CIS.
Among the main contenders for the presidential post are representatives of opposition forces, such as the Party of Socialists and the Victory bloc, who advocate preserving Moldova’s sovereignty and rejecting the ruling president’s push for the country’s accession to the European Union.
The opposition accuses President Maia Sandu of actively promoting European integration and fostering close cooperation with Romania. Sandu, who holds Romanian citizenship, seeks to integrate Moldova into the EU through the closest possible ties with Bucharest. Her decision in 2023 to initiate the renaming of the Moldovan language to Romanian has sparked discontent among a significant portion of the population. The opposition argues that such actions are a direct continuation of the “Romanianization policy,” which threatens the cultural identity of this distinctive and multi-ethnic country.
Additionally, the opposition accuses Maia Sandu of consistently pursuing a policy of brutal suppression of opponents, independent media, and national minorities. Under her leadership, they claim her administration has repeatedly taken steps to restrict the rights of political rivals, including at the legislative level.
They also point to the Transnistria and Gagauzia regions, which have significant Russian-speaking and Turkic-speaking minorities, noting that ongoing conflicts with these autonomies have only intensified divisions and made the prospects for peaceful coexistence within the country increasingly elusive. The incumbent’s policies have also been criticised for leading to the destruction of traditional trade and economic ties with Russia, which had previously saved Moldova from complete economic and social collapse over three decades of independence. During her presidency, the opposition claims the country has lost access to CIS markets, resulting in a sharp decline in agricultural exports, particularly in the wine and fruit industries, which were previously oriented towards Russia. Meanwhile, they note that the Sandu government has entered into several agreements with the European Union, which do not, however, compensate for the loss of ties with the EurAsEC. They argue that Moldovan agricultural and industrial products are now uncompetitive in EU markets.
Critics assert that, due to the current government’s policies, inflation in Moldova has reached record levels, leading to a significant decline in living standards.
The simultaneous presidential election and referendum on European integration are sparking protests among the opposition and other government critics. The opposition claims that combining the two polls is expected to increase turnout at polling stations, which would be favourable for the incumbent president. There is also scepticism regarding the legality of merging the presidential election and the referendum, as the results of such a process might call the outcome of the vote into question for years to come.
The opposition argues that a referendum held in the context of an economic crisis and political division has a high chance of failure, a view that is reportedly recognised by some government representatives. Nonetheless, they contend that Maia Sandu and her supporters continue to insist on pushing through with it.
Some argue that the issue of Moldova’s European integration is inherently divisive, as the majority of the country’s population is traditionally oriented towards Russia, with which the former Soviet republic shares close centuries-old historical, cultural, and religious ties. The Russian language remains widely used in everyday life, and Orthodoxy continues to be the dominant religion. Consequently, a referendum is perceived as a rejection of national identity and sovereignty.
Economically, Moldova remains dependent on Russia. Close ties with Russia, even during the most difficult times, have ensured stable energy supplies and unimpeded access to the largest market for Moldovan agricultural products. If Moldova joins the EU, it risks losing its connections with Moscow, leaving its economy in huge uncertainty.
