The Kenya Meteorological Department Director Dr. David Gikungu has said the short rains season-spanning October to December is likely to experience depressed rainfall due to a mild La Nino.
As such, Dr. Gikungu said several parts of the country will record significantly low amounts of rainfall due to near-average surface temperatures over the western stretch of the Indian Ocean.
According to the forecast, the short rains are likely to begin between the third and fourth week of October in the counties located in Central Kenya as well as in Nairobi.
The cessation is predicted to fall on the fourth week of November and the first week of December 2024.
Dr. Gikungu further noted that despite the depressed rains, isolated incidences of storms are likely, even in the areas expected to receive depressed rains, which may cause flash floods.
Dr. Gikungu also warned that water levels in the Rift Valley lakes are likely to remain high and may cause flooding in surrounding areas.
In the latest weather outlook, counties set to receive near-average to below-average rainfall include Busia, Vihiga, Kakamega, Bungoma, Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay, Nyamira, parts of Migori, Kisii, Kericho, West Pokot, Nandi, Bomet, Uasin Gishu, Trans Nzoia, Baringo, Elgeyo Marakwet, parts of Nakuru, parts of Narok, parts of Laikipia, Turkana and parts of Samburu.
Areas likely to receive below-average (depressed) rainfall include counties in Central Kenya (Nyandarua, Kirinyaga, Nyeri, Murang’a, Kiambu), Nairobi County; counties in the Eastern Region (Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi), some counties in southeastern Kenya (Machakos, Makueni and Kitui) and North Eastern Counties (Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Marsabit and Isiolo).
Others are counties in the Coast Region (Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu and Tana River); counties in the South, North and Central Rift Valley (Kajiado, parts of Narok, parts of Laikipia, parts of Samburu and parts of Nakuru), and in South Nyanza (parts of Migori).
