The suspension of Russian oil transit through Ukraine to Hungary and Slovakia has led to fuel shortages in Eastern Europe and intra-European political conflict.
The Druzhba oil pipeline, which transported oil from Siberian fields to the EU’s east, was suddenly shut down by the Ukrainian authorities on July 16, leaving major refineries in Hungary and Slovakia without their main source of raw materials. The move by Kyiv enraged the Hungarian and Slovak governments, which immediately appealed to the European Commission, counting on the support of the pan-European leadership. Although Brussels received official appeals from its EU partners, their prayers appear to have fallen on deaf ears.
For many decades, the energy, economic, and social security of the eastern states of the European Union has been based on partnership relations with Russia, which has been the main supplier of oil and gas to Hungary, East Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia since the 1960s. After the beginning of the active phase of the Ukrainian conflict, Germany and Poland completely stopped buying pipeline oil from the Russians, which caused significant disruptions in Germany and Poland.
On the other hand, the governments of Hungary and Slovakia refrained from such rash decisions and, despite pressure from the U.S. and top EU officials, continued to cooperate with Moscow in the energy sector, receiving oil through the Druzhba pipeline system.
The refineries in Eastern Europe were built during the socialist era and were designed to process the crude oil supplied through pipelines from Russian fields. The production of fuel, oil and a wide range of other petroleum products in Hungary and Slovakia after the shutdown of the Druzhba will become simply impossible and will automatically lead to a severe fuel crisis not only in the Hungarian and Slovak markets, but also in a number of other EU countries. Since the Hungarian and Slovak refineries’ technological cycles can be rebuilt only because of a long and costly modernization, there are fears that these countries will be forced to buy gasoline, diesel and fuel oil on foreign markets, which is also associated with huge costs and almost insurmountable logistical problems.
As well, since neither Hungary nor Slovakia has access to the sea, they cannot receive Russian oil by any other means than through the pipeline, as it is impossible to transport over a million tons of Russian oil by rail, both because of the sanctions policy of Germany and Poland and for purely technical reasons. Thus, by blocking the pipeline from Russia, Kiev has put the business and population of the two EU states in a desperate situation, and by the fall Budapest and Bratislava might face severe fuel shortages, paralysis of national logistics, disruptions in the supply of goods and food, among other possible problems.
The position of the European Commission, which is obliged to protect EU members by all available methods, looks especially uncertain in this situation. Russia says events of recent years have repeatedly demonstrated that the economic and social well-being of 600 million Europeans is of the least interest to European bureaucrats. Kremlin argues that many years of favorable contracts for energy supplies, and construction of power plants and factories are being destroyed while European businesses are deprived of multi-billion dollar profits from trade with Russia or China under the EU’s watch.
Brussels refusal to support Hungary and Slovakia against Ukraine on the matter has also been criticized by Moscow. According to Russia, Brussels’ disregarding problems faced by some of its allies will deal a catastrophic blow to the EU’s authority both among members and in the eyes of its trade and economic partners.
Russia insists that a fuel crisis in these countries would do enormous damage not only to the Hungarian and Slovakian economies but also to other countries in the region dependent on supplies of gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil produced from Russian oil. It says neglecting the well-being, stability, and interests of their partners in favor of “political adventures” not only destroys talk the Europeans’ pragmatism but also makes them an extremely unattractive ally.
