The long rains seasonal forecast indicates that the country is set to receive enhanced rainfall during the long rains season of March to May. According to the Director of Kenya Meteorological Department Dr. David Gikungu, the country is expected to experience an early onset of the long rains season, hence the need to take advantage of the rains to increase agricultural productivity.
“Occasional storms may also be experienced during the season,” said Dr. Gikungu who spoke when he released the forecast, adding that, “During the season, it is likely that several areas will have a generally fair to good distribution of rainfall in both time and space, except over the northeast and northwestern regions where the distribution is expected to be poor to fair.”
The Weatherman says, the season is expected to experience an early to normal onset with occasional dry spells, warning that occasional storms are likely to be experienced in some parts of the country.
The peak of the rains, according to the weatherman, is expected to be in April for most regions, except over the Coastal Strip where the peak is expected in May.
Dr. Gikungu said that the temperature forecast indicates warmer than average temperatures are expected over the whole country with increased probabilities over the coastal and northern parts of the country and appealed to various sectors to put in place measures to utilize the expected good rains in order to increase productivity.
The Director warned that a few areas of the country could experience storms hence the need for better preparedness so as to prevent disasters as the enhanced rains season is coming right after the short rains season of October, November to December experienced enhanced rainfall.
The forecast indicates that the highest seasonal rainfall amounts that over 300 millimeters will be experienced over the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Central and South Rift Valley, the Highlands East of the Rift Valley including Nairobi County and the Coastal Strip.
“The MAM 2024 forecast indicated that above-average rainfall is expected over the Lake Victoria Basin, Highlands West of the Rift Valley, Central, Northern and Southern Rift Valley, Highlands East of the Rift Valley, including Nairobi County, Northeastern, Southeastern Lowlands and Northwestern regions,” said Dr. Gikungu and added that, “Generally, near-average rainfall with a tendency to above average rainfall is expected over the Coastal region and parts of the Southeastern lowlands. Occasional storms are also likely during the season.”
He noted that during the season, it is likely that several areas will have a generally fair to good distribution of rainfall in both time and space, “except over the northeast and northwestern regions where the distribution is expected to be poor to fair.”
The Director of Met Services added that the season is expected to experience an early to normal onset with occasional dry spells, “Occasional storms are likely to be experienced in some parts of the country.”
The expected rainfall amount is likely to be above the long-term average for the season in the Southeastern Lowlands of Kitui, Makueni, Machakos, Kajiado and Taita Taveta, with Taita Taveta and the Southern parts of Kitui and Makueni Counties are likely to experience near average with a tendency to above average rainfall. The distribution of the rainfall is likely to be fair to good in both time and space.
The Northeastern Counties of Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo and parts of Tana River are expected to experience occasional rainfall during the season. The expected rainfall amount is likely to be above the long-term average for the season. The distribution of the rainfall is likely to be poor to fair in both time and space.
The Coastal Strip of Mombasa, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties the rainfall amounts are likely to be near to above the long-term average amounts for the season. The distribution of the rainfall is likely to be fair to good in both time and space.
