The Kenya Meteorological Department says that half of the country, including counties in the highlands east and west of the Rift Valley, and the South Rift Valley are expected to receive rainfall near to above normal. The other half comprising of the North Eastern, South Eastern Lowlands and the Coastal Region are expected to receive near to below-normal rainfall during the month.
While noting that the climate outlook is based on models developed from the expected evolution of global Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), the Director of Meteorological Service Dr. David Gikungu says the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, with equatorial SSTs near-to-below-average in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
“La Niña is highly likely to emerge between September and November, with a 71% likelihood, and is anticipated to persist through the January-March 2025 period,” says Dr. Gikungu.
The monthly forecast indicates that the Highlands west of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Central and South Rift Valley, the Northwest, the Highlands east of the Rift Valley (including Nairobi County), isolated areas in the Northeast (parts of Marsabit), and parts of the Southeast (Machakos and parts of Kajiado) are likely to experience near to above-average rainfall for the month.
In contrast, the Weatherman says, “the Coastal region, most of the Southeastern lowlands, and the majority of the Northeastern zone are expected to receive near to below-average rainfall.”
Dr. Gikungu says that the onset of the Short Rains season is anticipated between the fourth week of October and the first week of November over the Eastern part of the country, while it is expected to occur in the third to fourth week of October over the central parts, including Nairobi County.
The Weatherman notes that the expected near to above average rainfall in the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, Central and North Rift Valley is likely to provide sufficient soil moisture to sustain agricultural production. “The rains may however affect harvesting, drying and storage of grains adversely,” says Dr. Gikungu and adds that, “the continuation of sunny and dry weather conditions in the Northeast counties and South-eastern Lowlands may lead to diminishing pastures for livestock in these regions.”
The weatherman is warning of health hazards in areas expected to receive near to average rainfall and which have poor drainage systems, saying that pools of stagnant water may form providing habitats for disease vectors, which could lead to vector borne diseases such as Malaria. “Dry areas are likely to be susceptible to dust storms which may lead to an increase in respiratory tract diseases,” says the Weatherman.
With the above normal rainfall expected in western Kenya, the Meteorological Department is warning of expected lightning strikes, especially in Kisii, Kisumu, Nandi, Kakamega and Bungoma (Mt. Elgon areas) counties.
The major river catchment areas for the country’s hydroelectric power generating dams are forecast to receive near to above-average rainfall hence “the water levels in the dams across the country are expected to be maintained during this period,” he says adding that, “Water harvesting should be used to harness rainwater.”
